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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.